When will ClaudePlaysPokemon defeat Giovanni in Silph Co? (Extended) | Manifold

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon defeat Giovanni in Silph Co? (Extended)

5

1kṀ1025

2026

14%

Before Dec 16

27%

Before Dec 19

39%

Before Dec 23

53%

Before Dec 30

61%

Before Jan 6, 2026

67%

Before Jan 13

72%

Before Jan 20

75%

Before Jan 27

78%

Before Feb 3

80%

Before Feb 10

All dates are Pacific Time. Based on the current Opus 4.5 run only; if it is reset before defeating Giovanni all answers resolve NO.

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bought Ṁ40 YES

I realized a bug in the mathematical model I was using and the updated version is slightly more optimistic!

Note that the buckets aren't equal here; they get larger at first and then they're a week each.

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Related questions

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon defeat Giovanni in Silph Co?

What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon?

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 6th badge (Marsh Badge) from Sabrina?

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 5th badge (Soul Badge) from Koga?

When with ClaudePlaysPokemon beat Pokemon Red/Blue?

Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025?

What milestones will the (on-screen) Step Count reach in ClaudePlaysPokemon?

Other than ClaudePlaysPokemon, which AIs will have their own Twitch streams (>24 hrs) playing video games by EOY 2025?

Will the official ClaudePlaysPokemon stream complete Pokémon Red?

Will Claude Become a Pokemon Master before 2027?

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