• Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that if The AI (or any AI) is a factor in the resolution of this market, its performance and related announcements will be judged according to the following constraints, drawn from a related market on AI performance at IMO 2025:

  • Definition of an AI "solving" a problem:

  • The AI must produce a solution that is deemed correct and complete by IMO standards, typically meaning it would score full points (e.g., 7 points).

  • The solution must be generated by the AI autonomously. This means without human assistance in the core problem-solving process after the problem statement is provided to the AI.

    • Human involvement is acceptable for: setting up the AI, providing the problem statement, or interpreting the AI's raw output into a human-readable format, as long as the core reasoning and solution steps originate from the AI.

  • Criteria for a "public announcement" (if the market outcome depends on such an announcement):

  • Must be made through an official channel of the AI lab (e.g., company blog, press release, research paper on arXiv, official social media account).

  • Must explicitly state that an AI developed by the lab solved at least one problem from IMO 2025.

  • Must occur on or before IMO 2025

  • Definition of an "AI lab" (if the market outcome depends on identifying distinct labs):

  • This can include academic research groups, corporate AI labs, independent research collectives, or a well-documented individual effort operating under a distinct name or identity.

The market creator will be the final arbiter of any ambiguities, aiming for the spirit of the question and prioritizing clear, verifiable public claims. These clarifications are based on the details provided at: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/ai-imo-2025-how-many-ai-labs-announ

• Update 2025-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Top 10 includes ties.

• Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market may resolve based on the outcome that >50% of contestants receive a medal.

• Update 2025-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Regarding a potential outcome of a protest against Israeli participation, the creator is considering what scale of protest is required and whether it needs to be reported by the media to count.