Every person who wins resolves to 25% (assuming it's 4 people who split it equally, in general we split it).
It's very silly to bet people over 25%. In principle the Fields Medal could be awarded to fewer than four people but that's unlikely.
1,000@k1234567890y It’s well known that Hong Wang was the driving force behind Kakeya. Zahl is good too but Wang is better.
@nathanwei thanks for telling
I decided to show at least what Hong Wang and Jacob Tsimerman had done so that people would have some concepts about them before making predictions.
@nathanwei They don't have to give out 4, although they have for the last 5 times.
Then again, it's not guaranteed that Wang and Tsimerman will get it, even if it does seem pretty likely.
@DanielTilkin I think it’s practically guaranteed (95%) that Wang will get it in either 2026 or 2030, but I think about 65% for 2026 and 30% for 2030. Viazovska didn’t get it until the last time she was eligible either.