AGI Timelines

2.2k
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?6% chance
30k
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,034
10k
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?12% chance
10k
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?52% chance
2.1k
Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?YES
2.1k
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?38% chance
2.2k
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?65% chance
1.4k
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?89% chance
Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI
Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?
1k
Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?89% chance
1.3k
By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)87% chance
1.7k
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)90% chance
1.5k
In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)60% chance
1k
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)81% chance
1.2k
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)78% chance
2.4k
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?32% chance
6.2k
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
31%
DeepMind
25%
OpenAI
16%
Other
10%
Anthropic
See 8 more answers
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