Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Left Wing" or "Right-Wing" this week?
11
125Ṁ797
Mar 9
99%
Donald Trump
92%
Being a Centrist
73%
Prediction Markets
1%
Kamala Harris
1%
Veganism

Disclaimer:
Almost all of the description and the idea for this market is copied from

@Bayesian because i wanted to have a market like this again. Thanks for the idea! If i did anything that was not in the original spirit of this market, anyone is free to correct me and i'll change that!

Each answer contains a question: Do you think the person/character/concept is more Right-Wing (YES) or more Left-Wing (NO)? Bet YES, or NO, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.

You can submit any person/character/concept (shortened to p/c/c for the rest of the description), as well as a link / short phrase to give traders some context.

I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.


As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in p/c/c you think are Right-Wing, buy any amount of NO in p/c/c you think are Left-Wing. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.

If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system.

Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote.

The market will close every every week; See the close date to know on what day. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.

If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES.

If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO.

If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved.

The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running.

It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted.

Some guidlines:

  • I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.

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