Due to social anxiety, im way too scared of other people. I'm hoping that this market might be able to reassure me a bit, or show me what is likely to have positive effects and what isn't.
Also, feel free to use this market as a tool for your own circumstances.
resolution criteria:
Each option resolves based on my personal perception. If i think the action either connected me with other people or improved my social skills to an extent that warrants the investment(time, energy etc.), it will resolve yes. otherwise no.
any action performed multiple times will resolve to the average of them, and if the action wasnt done at all it resolves N/A
feel free to share your own experinces or add any answer you think might be helpful. also, ask me anything in the comments if you want more info to be more accurate.
i will not bet on this market
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the threshold for an action to be considered "worth the investment":
The requirement applies to both connecting with people and improving social skills.
The threshold is described as very low.
An action with any improvement whatsoever in either category will likely be sufficient to meet the criteria and resolve to YES.
1,000A few questions (both to help determine odds and enable better advice):
How large is your current friendship group, and how many of those would you consider to be really close?
How did you meet your current friendship group members?
Roughly how large is the population of the village/town/city you live in? If under 100k, roughly how far away is the nearest 100k+ city?
What are your main recreational hobbies/interests and philosophical/political views?
Does the requirement to be worth the investment apply to both improving social skills and connecting with people, or just the former? If just the former, what is the minimum level of connection required?
Good luck :)
@TheAllMemeingEye Answers:
I don't think i have a real friend group. I have one friend/accuaintance from school. And i have some friends from my previous city, but we aren't in touch anymore. I'm not close with and if them
N/A (no friend group)
small town/city ~ 10k people. nearest 100k + City about a 45 minute car and train ride away
My main recreational hobbies are Developing and playing Videogames, Chess, reading, streaming on Twitch, speed-typing, playing mtg. I'm kinda unsure about my political views because i didn't research/challenge them much but I'd say I'm economically center/center right and socially/culturally very left/progressive. Philosophy wise im an agnostic atheist and i like absurdism
The requirement applies to both. The minimum level of connection required is very variable and i cant really define it, but if say it's pretty low. Overall it's very easy to pass the threshold of being worth the time investment if there any improvement whatsoever in either category
I don't think i have a real friend group. I have one friend/accuaintance from school. And i have some friends from my previous city, but we aren't in touch anymore. I'm not close with and if them
N/A (no friend group)
Sorry to hear, that sounds like a lonely situation :(
In-person socialising would be difficult due to being in different countries, but if you feel like it I'm up for being digital pen pals, you seem pretty cool in general :)
small town/city ~ 10k people. nearest 100k + City about a 45 minute car and train ride away
Very relatable lol, my small hometown had approximately fuck all to do, meanwhile the semi distant university city was full of actually interesting clubs/societies
My main recreational hobbies are Developing and playing Videogames, Chess, reading, streaming on Twitch, speed-typing, playing mtg.
Nice, do you happen to know your approximate chess ELO rating? I once fed my expected win rate against a peer into the rearranged formula and somehow ended up with a negative rating XD. Also, if you're ok with sharing, which types of books do you like to read?
I'm kinda unsure about my political views because i didn't research/challenge them much but I'd say I'm economically center/center right and socially/culturally very left/progressive. Philosophy wise im an agnostic atheist and i like absurdism
Cool, reasonably based
I'm up for being digital pen pals, you seem pretty cool in general :)
That's a cool idea! I can't guarantee that I'll respond quickly every time but if your ok with that I'd be down. it sounds fun. How would we go about doing that? Use email?
Nice, do you happen to know your approximate chess ELO rating?
Around 1200. I haven't played much recently but i really want to get playing again and improve.
I once fed my expected win rate against a peer into the rearranged formula and somehow ended up with a negative rating XD.
lmao xD
Also, if you're ok with sharing, which types of books do you like to read?
A lot of different types. Some sci-fi books like the chaos waking series and some older novels like Brave New World and 1984. I also like Mangas, my favorite is Detective Conan. I've also read some nonfiction books, including The Myth Of The Rational Voter and Atomic Habits. Which ones do you like to read(if any)? Do you know any of the books I mentioned?
How would we go about doing that? Use email?
Would you be up for using Rakuten Viber? It's the messaging app I use to connect with @4fa , and the only app I know of which is both widely used globally, end-to-end encrypted, not based in US/China/Russia, and not blatantly turning a blind eye to users doing horrific organised crime. If so I could Manifold DM you my contact info :)
Around 1200. I haven't played much recently but i really want to get playing again and improve.
Ok yeah I'd get absolutely wrecked lol, though you might be able to compete more evenly with @100Anonymous , they're active on chess.com and have an ELO rating around 1000 I think (see linked comment thread)
https://manifold.markets/crowlsyong/i-duct-tape-an-ipad-to-my-face-at-m#xjt3zzpby4h
Which ones do you like to read(if any)? Do you know any of the books I mentioned?
Cool, I've read 1984, own but haven't yet read Brave New World, and have heard of but don't own Atomic Habits. I'll add the others to my future reading list :)
I'm currently partway through a few different books, including Our Mathematical Universe and Sapiens, and have promised my friends that the next book I'll start is Orbital since they recommended it so strongly and I trust their taste
There's got to be a better option than a chess club an hour away. Also:
Social interaction on a basic mechanical level ranges from easy to very easy. But a variety of disparate complex psychological reasons prevent us from engaging with it on the basic mechanical level. Just try to make good choices and you'll be fine.