
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?
24
102แน6689Jan 1
0.7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy
Update 2025-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Successful launch criteria:
The reused booster must launch and make the payload reach orbit.
The booster must survive the launch, but it is not required to land intact on its second attempt.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@Nat relaunching a used one and it manages to make payload reach orbit and survives. but it does not need to make it back down in one piece the 2nd time, since it will have launched successfully
Related questions
Related questions
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
SpaceX rocket launches by end of 2026?
50% chance
๐ Will SpaceX Achieve 150 Successful Launches In 2025?
96% chance
Will SpaceX successfully catch a Starship in 2025?
1% chance
Will SpaceX successfully land a crewed mission on Mars by the end of 2025?
1% chance
How many times will SpaceX launch their Falcon 9 / Heavy in 2025?
Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025?
38% chance
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
10% chance
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?
68% chance
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?
89% chance
