Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?
12
100Ṁ21092026
42%
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TSMC has 5,185,514,310 shares outstanding, so the relevant price is 1E12 / 5,185,514,310 = 192.84
Based on implied probabilities from 12-29-2025 options, the appropriate probability as of the decline on Mar 3, 2025 is ~33.7%, but the market is currently trading at 97%. I am happy to buy some NO :)
https://optioncharts.io/options/TSM/probability-distribution?expiration_dates=2025-12-19:m&probability_distribution_type=lognormal_distribution&probability_function_type=cdf
https://companiesmarketcap.com/tsmc/shares-outstanding/
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