Resolves based on FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S which seems to be updated sometime after the quarterly GDP numbers are released, so we'll aim for late January 2025.
I will add more options if the numbers move significantly outside the current range. All markets that are correct will resolve YES.
As a starting point, it is 121.7% as of Q4 2023.
1,000Next update 27 March 2025 will presumably use the third update figures
I get debt at $36.218605 T
2nd estimate current dollar GDP $ 29.720 T
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/vendor/_accounts/JEC-R/gdp/Monthly-GDP-Update.pdf
Using above figures, looks like around 121.866%
However third estimate of GDP could be revised down which could push it above 122%
Perhaps more importantly there are also other figures around e.g.
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/gdp4q24-2nd.pdf
Page 9 shows seasonally adjusted figures Quarter by quarter showing 29.719.6 but also a revised figure for 2024 of 29,183.8.
I don't know which figure should/will be used, but if it is the latter one with any 4th quarter 3rd estimate revisions then it could be nearer 124.1%
My conclusion is: Don't trust my calculations they could be miles out.