Resolves positively if there is a pan-European military force created before 2030. This might be an EU army or the army could be under the command of another institution.

See the same market for 2040: https://manifold.markets/B/will-a-european-or-eu-army-be-creat

To resolve positively,

• the army would be under the command of a body with representation from among current EU-27 European Union countries (or their successors) totalling more than 200 million people in population.

• the commanding body would not have representation from the United States (as NATO does)

• the commanding body may have representation from countries in Europe that are not members of the EU.

• Members of this armed service may be permanently assigned to the pan-European army, or temporarily under its command, assigned by their respective national armies.

• The command infrastructure would give orders directly to the military force rather than going through national army command subject to individual nations' approval

• There must be at least 100,000 active service personnel at one time. By comparison, France currently commands 203,000 Germany 183,000, and the United States 1,400,000.

Apr 14, 3:56pm: Will a European/EU army be created before 2030? → Will a European/EU army be created before 2030?

• Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification:

  • If an army is formed under NATO control, it will still be considered as resolving YES provided that the USA does not have a share in the direct chain of command.

  • This situation could occur if the USA has officially withdrawn from NATO, its membership is suspended, or its involvement becomes de facto dormant.