Invalid contract
Road race only so ITT don't count.
They have to actually wear a distinctive WC/CC/NC jersey at the start of Stage 1. If someone is national champion but also World Champion or some other thing that covers up their national championship jersey, that still counts as just 1.
My intent is to cover all riders who have a normal reason to wear kit different from the rest of their team. Ask about any edge cases below if you have questions. Photographic evidence will be used if there is any question. Please bring up all edge cases you can think of before betting.
At the time of creation this is a cross between NC results and TDF startlist predictions which should be fun. Then it will switch to being more about startlist predictions.
I reserve the right to close trading at any time because the platform does not let me withdraw liquidity in this market type.
I'm probably just going to close this question until the race starts, I don't need to pay for startlist updates. Most of the chaos was supposed to be in predicting the NC RR results which has already happened. I'm not able to withdraw liquidity in this market type so instead of just giving it to news traders we will close trading. Kinda sucks, I wish I could just remove the excess liquidity and let people continue to trade on a smaller AMM...
Here's how I see it now:
Likely CC/WC starters:
Tadej Pogacar (WC)
Tim Merlier (European CC)
Henok Mulubrhan (African CC) did race the Dauphine, but I'm not sure that he will start the TDF, it's probably between 10% and 50% but IDK much about this team. The other CCs will not be starting.
Likely NC starters:
Narvaez
Simmons
Durbridge
Schmid
Wellens
Zimmermann
Van Poppel
Skujins
Romeo
Leknessund
Not sure yet NCs:
Fedorov (seems pretty likely to me)
Mihkels (EF is unpredictable but seems unlikely)
Everyone else
I think it's more likely that an NC guy gets added than removed at this point, because there are ~a dozen who could randomly get ill or injured to remove themselves from the startlist, but ~a hundred who could get ill or injured and then be replaced by one of the other NCs on the sidelines.
Some NCs on invited teams and whether I think they could potentially be an extra filler if rosters change:
Godon (did Giro)
Watson (has done a number of 2.WT races this year but also already has a ton of racedays)
Bernal (doing Giro-Vuelta, very unlikely for TDF)
SKA (hasn't raced much this year, might get the nod if someone falls out of Trek)
Vacek (did Giro, probably more likely than SKA)
Omrzel (is on Dev team officially, very unlikley)
Majka (seems to be on Giro-Vuelta trajectory)
Oliveira (probably not even close to 1st in line as a replcement, potentially injured from a crash at NC also)
Kluckers (never done a GT, seems unlikely)
Gee (doing Giro-Vuelta, doubt they put him in the Tour)
Aular (did Giro, probably needs a break)
So I'm thinking we're on track for 12, 13, or 14.
For the ones who already have jerseys, I'm thinking:
Pogacar
Merlier
Simmons
Narvaez
Durbridge
Should all be very likely. So I am buying a lot of "Above 5" because just one more will be easy.
If the market has the final correct answer within 0.5 either direction when I check it at the end of this coming Saturday, everyone holding any shares of any answer at that time will get a payout of free mana from me proportional to the stake they took in the market as of that date. I'm pretty confident the full gift pool will be over 1000 mana.