Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES for any individual listed if they:
Resign from their position as party leader AND
Announce a resignation from their parliamentary seat AND
Explicitly cite the 2025 Federal Election results as a primary reason for their resignation
Party leader loses their seat in the election and resigns as leader
The announcement of resignation must occur within 1 month after the election to be considered a direct result of the election.
For each individual:
Anthony Albanese: Current Prime Minister and Labor Party leader
Peter Dutton: Liberal Party leader and Leader of the Opposition
Adam Bandt: Leader of the Australian Greens
Pauline Hanson: Leader of One Nation
David Littleproud: Leader of the National Party
The market will resolve NO for individuals who:
Only resign from their leadership position but retain their seat, without announcing an intention to resign within the listed period
Loose their seat but retain party leadership.
Resign as leader ends for reasons unrelated to the election (e.g., health issues, scandals)
Announce resignation more than 1 month after the election
1,000@PaulBenjaminPhotographer I should have clarified. I just classed it under “not as a result of the election” but it would technically be a result of the election.
For continuity’s sake, I’ll say that if the party leader fails to win the seat then it will resolve as Yes, because it would be a result of the election fulfilling both criteria, and there is no doubt as the to reason of the resignation as party leader in such an instance.
If they stay on as a leader after the loss? It should resolve as a No.
I’ll update the market now.