Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?
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42%
chance
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including tests; metaculus definition
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@traders this is a notoriously inactive creator -- I suggest we extend the resolution date to 2100. I'm going to do that now, but if you have a strong and compelling consensus opinion that this should not be done, you could try to convince it to close at the end of 2023 instead.
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