
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before strong AGI?
27
1kṀ23282030
85%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
including tests; metaculus definition
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2032?
65% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?
42% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
64% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before GPT-5?
15% chance
Will we get AGI before WW3?
74% chance
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?
57% chance
Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first?
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
15% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be fired in anger before 2075?
44% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
12% chance