Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla releases a vehicle with Level 4 autonomy—defined as a vehicle capable of performing all driving tasks within specific conditions without human intervention—by December 31, 2025. The release is confirmed if Tesla officially announces the availability of such a vehicle for purchase or deployment in a commercial service by the specified date. Official announcements from Tesla's press releases, investor communications, or reputable news outlets will serve as sources for resolution.
Background
Tesla has been actively developing autonomous driving technologies, with CEO Elon Musk frequently projecting advancements in this area. In October 2024, Tesla unveiled the "Cybercab," a fully autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, targeting production before 2027. (apnews.com) Additionally, Tesla announced plans to launch a paid robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, starting with 10-20 Model Y vehicles equipped with self-driving software, aiming for a June 2025 launch. (reuters.com) Despite these announcements, Tesla has a history of setting ambitious timelines for autonomous vehicle deployment that have not always been met.
Considerations
While Tesla has made significant strides in autonomous vehicle technology, achieving Level 4 autonomy involves overcoming substantial technical and regulatory challenges. The company's past projections regarding the timeline for full self-driving capabilities have often been optimistic, leading to skepticism about current timelines. Potential investors and stakeholders should consider these factors when evaluating the likelihood of Tesla releasing a Level 4 autonomous vehicle by the end of 2025.
Update 2025-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Tesla officially announces a Level 4 vehicle but its actual performance meeting the Level 4 definition is widely questioned, the creator has indicated that the official announcement alone may not be sufficient for a YES resolution. In such cases, the following may also be considered to determine if the vehicle truly meets the Level 4 criteria:
Performance data, such as the frequency of interventions.
Public opinion and expert opinion.
Update 2025-09-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution requires a driverless public service.
Must be a Level 4 deployment with no driver in the seat, offered as a full commercial service open to the general public ("everyone is allowed").
Closed pilots, invite-only programs, services requiring a safety driver, or mere purchase availability do not count.
1,000>"The release is confirmed if Tesla officially announces the availability of such a vehicle for purchase or deployment in a commercial service by the specified date."
What is the take here on purchased cars being delivered by self drive without a driver but the car when purchased only has supervised self driving or less? I presume you would say the unsupervised self driving is not available for sale so it doesn't count under the 'availability of such a vehicle' clause.
However it does seem to sound a lot like "deployment in a commercial service" which is an alternative way of qualifying according to this phrasing. Maybe that isn't quite what you intended? Not found more than the first one and I guess that one would have been watched remotely possibly with a stop switch available. Does that first one count? If it became common but we don't get reliable/trustworthy info on whether constantly monitored remotely with a stop/kill switch or not could this qualify?
There is also from factory production line to parking slots in Fremont, Austin and Berlin, but I assume this is not on public roads so probably doesn't count re 'actual performance meeting definition'/ too restricted of a domain.
@ChristopherRandles It's not actually level 4 autonomy if you search it up they don't have licenses in certain states because they aren't safe enough
@ChristopherRandles it's basically j ust when level 4 no driver in seat full commercial service with everyone is allowed
@ChristopherRandles but overall it just has to be a driverless car- you can't just claim something is driverless or something WILL be gone at the end of the year, if it's actually gone then I will resolve it. Tesla/Elon Musk has been saying for years now it will be driverless but it's not even close to cars like Waymo yet.
https://x.com/farzyness/status/1939429744220528870
Hey @elonmusk when does Tesla expect to get to a 3:1 or more Robotaxi to Supervisor/Teleoperator ratio?
Elon Musk 30 June 2025
"As soon as we feel it is safe to do so. Probably within a month or two. We continue to improve the Tesla AI with each mile driven."
Now 4 Sep 2025 more than 2 months later .... safety monitor moved to drivers seat
https://x.com/DirtyTesLa/status/1963610813047914665
"The safety driver is just there for the first few months to be extra safe. Should be no safety driver by end of year."
Does that seem like the date is slipping?
At least it seems anyone can now get through to using it rather than it being selected people only.
@ChristopherRandles That is probably - also sorry about the AI thing, it's when the actual product releases especially because Elon Musk lies a lot we would've had driverless cars by now
@RyanandPickles "deployment in a commercial service" - I suppose you count the Texas/California robotaxi service on that?
@AIBear Tesla could claim it is level 4, but I would probably just do it based on data, public opinion, etc. If there are too many interventions (unlike waymo, etc.) then it most likely wouldn't be lvl 4 in the first place, but if Elon Musk keeps claiming it's level 4 then it would be mostly up to popular opinion and experts.