What's the reasoning behind the NO folk? We already had a successful trial and we are half way through 2025 (I didn't expect this would happen before November). I'd estimate 25k Teslas sold in Texas every year, so they can easily deliver over 1 car/day autonomously. FSD improves fast and there's not much technical difference between sending a car 30 miles or sending it all over Texas, which is well over 1% of US population. What do you expect that happened? A regulatory block? 🤔🤔

@SimoneRomeo I think a California delivery might be a bigger regulatory challenge.

I guess one reason people may be leaning towards No is if they doubt if remote supervision counts as autonomous, which I'll clarify by saying that it still counts, no human occupants is the crux for me.

@CameronHolmes but it doesn't have to go to California. Texas has 9.2% of US population. If they manage to deliver cars to the whole of Texas and not only a couple of cities, it will be well over 1%

@SimoneRomeo to clarify the both California, Texas clause is conjunctive, so it does for the market to resolve positively.

@CameronHolmes oh gosh, I got it. So if Tesla delivered cars to the whole world autonomously and not to California, this would resolve NO?

@SimoneRomeo that's the letter of it, but not the spirit - poorly worded in retrospect. I assumed those would both be the easiest (Tesla's homes and lots of existing approved AV in both).

I do think 1 state doesn't really feel like a proper service, if it doesn't massively break the market I'd like to revise the wording to "multiple states" so your example would be a Yes.

I guess I still expect those to be first 2 anyway so maybe it doesn't ruin it?

@CameronHolmes I think it makes sense

@CameronHolmes Agreed, I think that's a fine clarification that helps keep to the spirit of the question. (And I say this as a NO bettor.)

Tweets from the customer https://x.com/Jagarzaf/status/1938685279021265094

How do you define that deliveries have taken place "credibly"?

@MarkosGiannopoulos someone could reasonably estimate the total is over 100 but without there necessarily being 100 well-documented examples.

E.g. if I saw 20 social media posts of random people across multiple cities showing off their delivery I would expect there were >100 total deliveries.

I doubt this will be an important factor in resolving the market, the other thresholds feels tougher.

@CameronHolmes Thanks for the response. I'm new on Manifold but have already noticed people squabbling over the meaning of every single word of the criteria (instead of arguing in good faith over the spirit of the market) ;)

@MarkosGiannopoulos honestly it's pretty hard to make unambiguous markets, there are many ways I could have written this question such that it would already resolve true (as of yesterday) so I understand why people want clarification

Market-moving news today with supposedly the first such delivery. But here's me rolling to disbelieve: https://agifriday.substack.com/p/turkla

I probably won't go below like 30% though.

@CameronHolmes Just to make sure, this won't resolve Yes unless "at least 1% of the US population should be eligible, coverage of multiple cities/urban areas in both California, Texas, and at least 100 such deliveries have credibly taken place", right?

@vdb right, it should be an actual service not a gimmick.

If only people who live within 10 miles of 1 Tesla factory in 1 state can get this that doesn't really feel relevant to a typical customer or material to the company.

@vdb just to clarify I've slightly modified this based on the other comment thread to "multiple states" rather than specifying exactly which.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1938682871105102254?t=sAFe4RpDJaEfB2F0KBAg-g&s=19

Easy, who wants to have fun?