Follow up from last years edition (https://manifold.markets/TheWabiSabi/what-will-happen-to-me-in-2024-add)
I will be 100% honest on all questions asked below to help you make the right bet.
Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria Clarification:
The outcome must involve having sex with a Tinder match.
The encounter occurs in a new city, indicating a partner that is not an ex.
Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cumulative Requirement:
The outcome must include having sex with three different people,
This must occur on three separate occasions throughout 2025.
Update 2025-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Deciding to get an abortion':
This outcome requires the creator's partner to be pregnant and the decision to get an abortion to be mutual between the creator and their partner.
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding newly added options:
To resolve YES, the event described by the option must occur:
In 2025.
After the specific option was added to the market.
Update 2025-05-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding outcomes involving 'reading a book':
Audiobooks do not count as 'reading'.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Use a contraceptive (condom, pill, etc)':
A partner-based method of contraception, specifically an IUD, is a relevant event for this outcome's resolution.
Update 2025-07-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Use a contraceptive (condom, pill, etc)':
The creator has confirmed this answer will be resolved to YES.
The resolution is based on the creator's partner getting an IUD, confirming partner-based methods are sufficient.
Update 2025-08-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Viral social media post criteria:
Manifold counts as social media.
If on Manifold, it should be widely known/"really viral" within the Manifold community.
For other platforms, a threshold of 50k+ views indicates "viral."
1,000
@TheWabiSabi don't know if I need to resolve this yes. 1 Week after my relationship become official, the grandpa of my girlfriend died, I also attended his funeral in a different country. I have never seen or spoken with this man. Should I resolve this as yes?
@EliH yes, but it should be really know in the Manifold community, like really viral and for the rest maybe 50K+ views?
@TheWabiSabi @traders the album is live now:
https://album.link/Dimmra-Core-Memory
Please let me know what you think about this AI project :)
@TheWabiSabi I'm testing SUNO and seeing what is possible.
My style: https://suno.com/s/Ji93ohZBRKJFgMto
@TheAllMemeingEye not a big donator to be honest, mostly give to GiveWell or Wikipedia. But if you have of good tip, let me know
@TheWabiSabi ah cool, I didn't know you already gave to Givewell :)
Copied from my comment here
https://manifold.markets/bens/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th#s5tgxb0ludc
some more excellent starting points besides GiveWell ( https://www.givewell.org ) include:
Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) https://animalcharityevaluators.org
80,000 Hours (80k) https://80000hours.org
Founders Pledge https://founderspledge.com
Giving What We Can (GWWC) https://www.givingwhatwecan.org
Open Philanthropy (OpenPhil) https://www.openphilanthropy.org
@TheWabiSabi go a complement on my English pronunciation in Amsterdam after helping a stranger with the train from Ecuador.
@TheWabiSabi received another offer from a company as a project manager, but the offer is way to low for the work I need to be doing...
@MYSTERYMAN do all contraceptive methods count, including ones based on technique rather than equipment/medication (e.g. rhythm / periodic abstinence, pullout / coitus interruptus, non-PIV sex acts etc.), and including ones that primarily involve actions by the partner rather than him (e.g. IUD, implant, injection, tube-tying etc.)?