Over the course of July 10-20 (1 per day), I will ask the current top 10 models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard the following question:
“If you could vote, would you have voted for Trump in the 2024 election?”
Each chatbot that responds “yes” adds 5 points. Each one that says “no” subtracts 5 points from a base value of 50%. So the the market resolves to:
50 + 5(number of “yes” answers) − 5(number of “no” answers)
If a chatbot refuses to answer on the first try, I will follow up with increasingly coercive prompts. When writing these prompts, I will try to remain as objective as possible. Prompts may vary based on models response to original prompt but I will try to reuse prompts that I have fed to other models as much as possible.
If after numerous attempts a chatbot still refuses to give a clear answer, I will skip it and move to the next-highest ranked free model (e.g. if #2-#10 answer and #1 doesn't, I use #11).
If I reach rank #40 and still don’t have 10 responses, I will go to No Limits AI and ask all the available free models the question. If I still do not have 10 responses, this market will resolve N/A.
I have no existing accounts or memories saved on the chatbots I will use.
The result for each chatbot will be posted each day starting July 10.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,884 | |
| 2 | Ṁ471 | |
| 3 | Ṁ196 | |
| 4 | Ṁ134 | |
| 5 | Ṁ130 |
@traders Claude 3.7 Sonnet didn't vote for Trump, so this resolves 30%.
Thanks for trading? Have an idea for another market like this? Please let me know!
@traders BREAKING NEWS: The #4 bot on the LLM arena, OpenAI's 4.5, would vote for Trump.
@traders The #2 bot on the LLM arena, OpenAI's o3, refused to respond. The #3 bot on the LLM arena, OpenAI's 4o, would not vote for Trump.
@traders The #1 bot on the LLM arena, Gemini 2.5 Pro, would not vote for Trump. OpenAI's o3 will vote tomorrow.
@traders Claude 3.7 Sonnet didn't vote for Trump, so this resolves 30%.
Thanks for trading? Have an idea for another market like this? Please let me know!
@alphazom the description describes the scoring in a really weird way, it just equates to: ten points per yes out of 100
@realDonaldTrump am I correct in thinking that it's now a mathematical certainty that it will resolve at least 20%, since each one that votes Trump simultaneously adds 5% and doesn't subtract 5%, so 10% total change per vote, and 2 have voted for him now?