I would guess that maybe 99% of the global population would be reached by the cascading effects and thus different people would be born, but as mentioned by others, super isolated communities and IVF would likely be unchanged

I changed my mind about the butterfly effect a couple days ago. I'm a MWI quantum physics guy who buys that other Everett branches exist. In that context the question becomes "is this person's measure hugely decreased when evolving from this wavefunction instead of that wavefunction," and I think the answer is actually no. Like, our particular branch is already a miniscule sliver of the mass evolving from 2022, and it seems to me that there are about as many people with e.g. a certain genome if we evolve from a starting state with Shinzo Abe alive.

(Obviously the assassination is a big event so there's basically zero measure on our particular branch, but that's a different question.)

Also IVF, as @SaviorofPlant noted.

@MaxHarms I suppose that, due to the observed quantum fluctuations emerging from MWI, an equal butterfly effect would be expected to emerge simply by going back in time and replaying the course of events without changing anything at all

Therefore, even though the odds of the world emerging the same are equally infinitesimal regardless of whether shinzo abe lives, it would still appear to change things

It's like how just because shuffling a deck of cards is equally likely to give you any given order, that doesn't mean the act of shuffling won't still change the order

Equal infinitesimal probability is indistinguishable from unequal zero probability if you only have a single data point

I voted no, but after more consideration I think there's a good chance North Sentinel is not effected enough by that incident to impact which sperm fertilized the egg

Wow I just misclicked on my own poll (didn't mean to vote)

i don't think you are applying anthropic shadow correctly

@SaviorofPlant Can you explain more?

i misunderstood the question as "would anyone at all have been born in july 2023 in the shinzo abe is alive timeline" instead of "would the set of infants born in the shinzo abe is alive timeline be completely different than the set of infants born in this timeline", my bad

@SaviorofPlant although the answer is probably still Yes because of IVF?