In what year will 70 million human deaths happen? | Manifold

In what year will 70 million human deaths happen?

5

225Ṁ282

2026

Invalid contract

our current estimate is that 69.7m died during covid, which was the closest we've reached to 70 million deaths in a year

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-per-year

Update 2025-10-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve to the first year in which 70 million human deaths occur. Only one answer can resolve YES - the earliest year meeting this threshold.

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opened a Ṁ20 ??? at 78% order

I assume you mean "for the first time"

If >70 Mi happen in 2035 and 2036, how will you resolve:
A) 2035 as YES, all others NO --> "for the first time" assumption
B) 2035, 2036 and any other with >70 as YES --> "years with >70" assumption

@MiguelLM the market is dependent, only one answer can resolve YES

@zsig good point! Thanks. The answer is clear now.

It didn't occur to me that I could find out by checking the market rate

first one yeah

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