On March 4th, after the imposition of new tariffs on Canada, I will buy a cup of guacamole from my local Chipotle. If the tariffs are still in effect before the cup has expired, the question resolves YES. Otherwise, the question resolve NO. Any further delay to effective implementation of the tariffs past March 4th will also result in a NO resolution. I will be the sole arbiter of whether the guacamole is expired. The tariffs must have applied to at least one item that crossed the border by March 6th to have been considered not delayed.
Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial Delay Resolution Update:
In cases of a partial delay (where not all imports are affected in the same way), the outcome will be determined based on the percentage in value of total imports that are exempted.
This resolution metric applies only to partial delays and alters the binary YES/NO conditions described earlier.
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The guacamole appears to have spoiled. I will now resolve to 82%, which is an estimate of the value of total trade for which the tariffs remained, from these sources:
Total Canadian imports (2024): ~$785 billion CAD in goods
Imports of motor vehicles & parts (2024): ~$140 billion CAD
