๐Ÿ—“๏ธ2025 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (39 DONE)
43
10kแน€17k
2026
40%
grok4 release date
40%
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
41%
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025
43%
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
45%
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
45%
Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam
48%
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
48%
Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase
50%
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
50%
someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard
50%
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
50%
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
50%
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
50%
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
50%
Skate 4 releases
51%
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
52%
the third Atlantic hurricane of the season
53%
trump removes a cabinet member
53%
windows 12 announcement is made
54%
Third dune movie officially announced

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)

    ...

  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)


Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.

  • Update 2025-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of ceasefire:

    • Any ceasefire qualifies, including those limited to infrastructure and energy.

    • This means no matter the focus, if a ceasefire is announced it is counted.

  • Update 2025-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial Release Inclusion:

    • For the event "Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video," the release qualifies even if not all parts are released.

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opened a แน€10 YES at 40% order

@strutheo
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/010310.shtml?
Hurricane Flossie is 3rd pacific hurricane June 30th

opened a แน€10 NO at 36% order

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ep05/ep052025.public_a.007.shtml
600 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...ERICK NOW A HURRICANE...

second pacific hurricane

@strutheo
Chime IPO June 12
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/chime-set-long-awaited-market-debut-after-864-million-us-ipo-2025-06-12/
second pacific hurricane June 18th per above
28 years later June 20th

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man:_Beyond_the_Spider-Verse
release date was apparently announced in March 2025.
oops sorry missed that one

bought แน€10 NO

@strutheo ^

Grok 4 release date to replace Spiderman ?

bought แน€5 NO

@strutheo
Manifest ends June 8
First pacific hurricane June 9th 15:00 UTC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ep02/ep022025.discus.006.shtml

Apple event is this start time or end time or Keynote speech start or end time? I think all of those are after first Pacific hurricane.

@ChristopherRandles ty chris youre the mvp

wish you were at manifest so we could meet!

@strutheo Your welcome.

Now reached 72 Falcon 9 and 3 starship makes 75
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2025 says

71 but there is one launch that has happened that is currently still in future section
1:54 UTC on 13th

bought แน€50 NO

Bitcoin reached 110000 USD on 22 May
MrBeast 400m reached 1 June 2025
Manifest started 6 June 2025

Mr Beast 400m reached 1 June 2025

opened a แน€10 YES at 30% order

MrBeast 1 June 2025
Manifest starts 6 June 2025

Wikipedia 7 million articles 28 May 2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics

sold แน€9 NO
bought แน€60 NO

Mike Waltz was a cabinet member and has been removed

@ChrisMillsc5f7 National Security Advisor is not a cabinet position

Llama 4 April 5 resolves 23%
Last day of NFL draft April 26 resolves 24%
SpaceX 50 rockets 48th F9 was April 28th 02:09 UTC plus two Starships Jan 16th and Mar 6th resolves 25%

Don't see any others.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/meta-releases-new-ai-model-llama-4-2025-04-05/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2025
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/past/?search=starship

@strutheo
Above 3 and May 5th 26% can resolve.

sold แน€10 YES

@strutheo Do all parts of it have to be released?

@ChristopherRandles ill count it

bought แน€40 NO

Korean pres removed

Myanmar earthquake widely reported as 7.7 magnitude. 28th March 2025. Could that be upgraded to 7.8?

How long to wait to see if that happens before resolving solar eclipse which happened after 29 March 2025? Perhaps wait a week?

Hmm. Third dune movie officially announced

https://9meters.com/entertainment/movies/dune-3-messiah-starts-filming-this-year-with-a-confirmed-release-date-already-set-for-december-18-2026
โ€œDune: Messiah,โ€ the highly anticipated conclusion to Denis Villeneuveโ€™s epic adaptation of Frank Herbertโ€™s โ€œDuneโ€ saga, is officially set for release on December 18, 2026. Warner Bros. confirmed the date, giving fans a target to look forward to.

Not sure when this happened. May have been 13 Feb 2025 but I think I looked since then (mid March?) and found suggestions of a December 2026 release date but it didn't seem officially announced just Denis Villeneuve comments about filming to start soon. It seems the 18 Dec 2024 date has been known since June 2024 but it wasn't sure what film it was to be.

Perhaps it still isn't officially announced. Grok thinks
As of March 31, 2025, Warner Bros. has not officially confirmed the production of a third Dune movie ...
Warner Bros. has reserved a December 18, 2026, release date for an unnamed Denis Villeneuve film

So I am not sure if Warner Bros have confirmed 18 Dec 2026 date to be a Dune film as per 9 meters or if that is them just generating articles claiming they know stuff when it isn't really official. It may still not be officially announced. Or it may have happened circa 13 Feb 2025? Or maybe there will be a more official announcement in future? Guess we wait to see what happens.

@ChristopherRandles yeah ive seen the rumors and they confirmed castings but i dont think its been unveiled officially as a project yet, just all the pieces coming together and there is a chance it can fall apart

bought แน€20 NO
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