⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2025? (2 DONE)
47
4kṀ8843
2026
96%
Manifest 2025 happens
96%
English Wikipedia reaches 7M articles or more
87%
Trump fires / discharges / replaces a member of his cabinet
85%
Mr Beast reaches 400M subscribers on youtube
76%
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
70%
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
69%
Eric Adams no longer mayor of NYC
61%
Chat GPT 5 releases
61%
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
57%
Verdict in P Diddy Sean Combs trial is reached
55%
Spider Man Beyond the Spider Verse release date announced
53%
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users
50%
Skate 4 releases
50%
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
50%
Manifold announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc
50%
StubHub IPO finalized
48%
100th spacex launch of the year
47%
Bitcoin BTC reaches $150K USD or more
46%
USA Government has a shutdown
44%
Release date of Hollow Knight Silksong known

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

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bought Ṁ472 YES

@strutheo
Imports from China already face taxes at the border of at least 10%, after a Trump tariff order that went into effect earlier this month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8yy3wpn6eo

bought Ṁ682 YES

@strutheo https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20250125-in-pictures-first-deportation-flights-of-trump-s-presidency-arrive-in-latin-america

reposted

made one for next year!

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